Predictive Modeling - ED Interim Operations

Landspitali Hospital Fossvogur, Reykjavik, Iceland

Landspitali Hospital is the national university hospital of Iceland located in the capital city of Reykjavik. Iceland has a population of only 360,000 people but also attracts over 2 million tourists every year.

Project Challenge

Landspitali Fossvogur had worked with Huddy to design a long-range ED planning solution that would be phased in through the year 2028. To impact the ED in the short-term, Huddy worked with staff and leadership to identify numerous immediate interim solutions that would allow the hospital to respond to continued ED volume increases, including the potential for an affiliated Cardiac ED to close in the region adding an immediate jump of 10,000 patients. 

Results or Recommendations 

Simulation modeling was developed and completed by Huddy Healthcare that tested multiple operational improvement and multiple short term facility improvements to help improve the ED throughput times. Over 169,000 different operational variable scenarios were developed and tested to help the client decide which options would bring the best improvement. 

Predictive Modeling - Service Line

Regional Health Service Line Distribution

Region Halland Health System, Halmstad, Sweden

The Region Halland Health System is located in southern Sweden and includes 3 acute care hospitals, 50 primary care centers and a half dozen other social care institutions. It is responsible for the healthcare needs for the ~300,000 people living in that region. 

Project Challenge

The System had seen a recent increase in demand for acute care services and was looking at shifting care out of the high cost hospital setting into lower cost outpatient care settings. Key areas of focus including diversion of Emergency Department patients away from the hospitals as well as transition some lower length of stay hospital inpatients into Observation status to reduce overall Health System costs. 

Results or Recommendations   

Through data analytics, predictive models were developed by Huddy HealthCare to test multiple scenarios which targeted reducing costs of unscheduled care by considering alternative care locations and the quantity of inpatients that could be off-loaded to a new Observation Status.  This resulted in a reduction of Inpatient beds anywhere from 10 to 15 depending on the sensitivity of patients diverting to Observation. This provided on opportunity for significant cost savings as the average cost for each inpatient encounter was €4500. 

Predictive Modeling - Outpatient

Predictive Modeling Quantifies Shift from Inpatient to Outpatient

United Lincolnshire NHS Trust, Lincolnshire, United Kingdom

The Lincolnshire NHS Trust is part of the United Kingdom’s National Health Services (NHS) and represents a number of hospitals, outpatient care clinics, surgical clinics and general practitioner offices.  

Huddy HealthCare teamed with UK-based Monaghanswhich provides multi-disciplinary building consultancy services. 

Project Challenge

Building on from the 100-day trials which were completed by Lincolnshire CCG that focused on Diabetes, Ophthalmology and Dermatology, Huddy Healthcare and Monaghans were appointed to examine the current and future demand for services and the impact of this projected demand upon the current estate’s strategy. The analytical tools and predictive models were used to quantify the impacts of shifting patient volume to outside clinics, general practitioners and tele-health locations. 

Modeling Tools 

Predictive models were developed by Huddy HealthCare that allowed the Trust to test patient shifts to the alternative locations. Models were developed for each separate region for more precise results. Details included the ability to determine appointment slots, durations, and overall impact to current care locations in each neighborhood.

Predictive Modeling - Freestanding Surgical Hospital

Orthopedic Hospital, Midwest (USA)

This Orthopedic Hospital is part of a regional hospital system and was a new build freestanding Orthopedic hospital that was being designed. 

Project Challenge

This regional health system was designing a new freestanding orthopedic hospital and needed assistance to right-size the facility by validating capacity needs and testing the space program for quantities of operating rooms, pre/post bays, PACU beds, observation beds and inpatient beds.

Results or Recommendations 


Huddy Healthcare developed predictive models and simulations that quantified future capacity thresholds including the ability to complete 10 of the 12 proposed Operating Rooms (by shelling 2 ORs). This analysis showed that by modifying hours of operation the facility would be able to meet short-term five-year service demands with the reduced quantity of ORs. At 10 hours per day the 10 Operating Rooms would be able to support the future 10-year volume forecast. Additionally, if procedure times were to reduce to less than 75 minutes per procedure, on average, those quantities of rooms would be able to support the future/projected volumes.

Regional Academic Medical Center, Midwest, USA

Community Health System, Midwest, USA

This example defines that analytics used to define high-performance over an entire replacement hospital.

Project Challenge

A replacement hospital design was being completed by the hospital’s architect, with a reduction in current inpatient bed numbers, and health system leadership and department leaders needed to define key operational metrics that would have to be achieved in each department to allow the hospital to function efficiently in the future. A new model of care and population health management would shift volume from the inpatient to outpatient settings including numerous volume and operational assumptions. These volumes and assumptions where stress-tested through Huddy HealthCare’s simulation tools.

Results or Recommendations 

Multiple simulation model scenarios were tested and quantified to see the impact on the overall bed capacity. To ensure the facility would be able to function in the new environment the new hospital operational and physical models were tested with animated simulation to test trigger points that may impact future occupancy rates of inpatient units. Huddy HealthCare defined the operational metrics, department volumes/capacities, and key targets for reduced length-of-stay that will need to be achieved to allow the hospital to function effectively upon its opening in three years.